Phoenix Housing Market Update - October 2015
Long Term Trends
Inventory jumped up in September with total active listings at 18,380. That's an increase of more than 1000 homes for sale from August. This is a typical trend for this time of year, but is a 15% decrease in inventory from a year ago. And we are below our 5 year average of 19,411 homes for sale in August. No real concerns with this activity, it is normal.
Sales are extremely strong as demand has improved dramtically this year. Total sales for September were 6,809 which is a 11% increase from a year ago. The sales volume is slightly better than our 5 year average of 6,672 sales for the month of September.
Median sales price improved 1.4% from August and has increased 9.8% from a year ago and was $212,000 for September. This well above the 5 year average of $170,450 and shows us the radical improvement the market has made over the past 5 years. Again this is an illustration of how strong demand is right now.
Average days on market went from 74 in August to 69 for September. This is also an improvement from a year ago when it was 83. The 5 year average is 74. This is another illustration of how demand continues to be strong.
The average sold to list price for September was 96.4%, which is largely unchanged from the previous month. The 5 year average is 96.1%, so again you can see how stronger demand means homes are selling closer to list price.
Short Term Trends
In September New Listings were up from August by 8% and Pending Sales declined by 6.8%. Closed Sales in September decreased 1.1% from August. This is telling me that inventory is increasing, which is typical for this time of year, and demand is cooling down, which is also typical for this time of year. The good news is that median price increased by 1.4% which tells me that although there may not be as many buyers in the market they are still strong enough to push values up.
The market will probably remain fairly flat until the end of the year and then pickup again in late January. I'm not expecting a whole lot of movement in the short term on property values and inventory.
Download September 2015 Housing Report
Interest Rates
Average US rate on 30-year mortgage rises to 3.82 percent; 15-year loan up to 3.03 percent
WASHINGTON (AP) — Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates rose this week yet remained below 4 percent for a 12th straight week.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 3.82 percent from 3.76 percent a week earlier. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 3.03 percent from 2.99 percent.
Despite the increase, rates remained well below last year's levels, providing an inducement for potential homebuyers.
A year ago, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 3.97 percent, while the rate for 15-year loans was 3.18 percent.
In recent days, two influential members of the Federal Reserve's policymaking body spoke in favor of postponing an increase in its key short-term interest rate. The Fed has been expected to raise the benchmark rate later this year for the first time in nine years.
To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country at the beginning of each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.
The average fee for a 30-year mortgage held steady from last week at 0.6 point. The fee for a 15-year loan also remained at 0.6 point.
The average rate on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.88 percent; the fee remained at 0.4 point. The average rate on one-year ARMs declined to 2.54 percent from 2.55 percent; the fee was steady at 0.2 point.
Clipped from US News on Ocotober 15, 2015, via Associated Press
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