Phoenix Housing Market Update - November 2015
Long Term Trends
Inventory continued to climb in October with total active listings at 20,027. That's an increase of approx 1700 homes for sale from September. This is a typical trend for this time of year, but is a 14% decrease in inventory from a year ago. And we are below our 5 year average of 20,933 homes for sale in October.
Sales and demand faded a bit in the past 30 days. Total sales for October were 6,143 which is a 1% increase from a year ago. That sales volume is below our 5 year average of 6,487 sales for the month of October.
Median sales price for October was $212,00 which is unchanged from September and is still approx 9.8% better than a year ago. This well above the 5 year average of $170,270 and shows us the radical improvement the market has made over the past 5 years.
Average days on market went up a bit from 69 in September to 72 in October. This is an improvement from a year ago when it was 87. The 5 year average is 77. These trend lines are normal and consistent with trends we see each year.
The average sold to list price for October was 96.1%, which is largely unchanged from the previous month. The 5 year average is 96.0%, so again you can see we are seeing normal trend lines.
Short Term Trends
In October New Listings were up from September by 9.4% and Pending Sales declined by 0.1%. Closed Sales in October decreased 9.8% from September. This is telling me that inventory is increasing, and demand is cooling down. Median price was unchanged. These short term trends are a little concerning. Buyers got a little more picky and Sellers have lost a bit of leverage since inventory has increased.
The market appears to be moving from a strong Sellers market to a more balanced market. It still favors Sellers, however increasing inventory and weaker demand are starting to work against Sellers.
Download November 2015 Housing Report
Interest Rate Watch
Average US rate on 30-year mortgage jumps to 3.98 percent; 15-year loan up to 3.20 percent
WASHINGTON (AP) — Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates this week rose sharply for a second straight week as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve may soon raise its key short-term interest rate.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 3.98 percent from 3.87 percent a week earlier. Nearing 4 percent, it was the highest level for the 30-year rate since July. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 3.20 percent from 3.09 percent.
A year ago, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.01 percent, while the rate for 15-year loans was 3.20 percent.
While it kept the key rate at a record low near zero, the Fed recently signaled the possibility a rate hike could come at its next meeting in December.
An unexpectedly strong employment report for October, released by the government last Friday, amplified expectations of a rate increase. It showed that hiring swelled last month by the largest amount this year — 271,000 jobs — while unemployment dropped another notch to 5 percent.
The market speculation on a Fed increase has brought plunging U.S. government bond prices and soaring yields, which rise as prices fall. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, which mortgage rates have been tracking, surged to 2.34 percent Wednesday from 2.22 percent a week earlier. The yield was at 2.32 percent Thursday morning.
To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country at the beginning of each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.
The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was unchanged at 0.6 point last week. The fee for a 15-year loan also remained at 0.6 point.
The average rate on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages jumped to 3.03 percent from 2.96 percent; the fee held at 0.4 point. The average rate on one-year ARMs rose to 2.65 percent from 2.62 percent; the fee was steady at 0.2 point.
Clipped from US News on November 12, 2015, via Associated Press
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