Phoenix Housing Market Update - June 2016
Phoenix Market Report June 2016
Long Term Trends
Inventory tightened up in May as total active listings were 19,405, which is approx 1000 - 2000 less homes for sale than we've been seeing each month in 2016. Inventory a year ago was approx 18,680 and our 5 year average is 17,411 homes for sale in May.
Sales and demand are extremely strong, but we are nearing the end of our peak selling season so look for this trend to subside. Total sales for March was 8,639 which is an 6.2% increase from a year ago. And sales volume is above our 5 year average of 8,333 sales for the month of May.
Median sales price for May was $225,00 which is approx 6.3% better than a year ago. This well above the 5 year average of $189,750 and shows us the radical improvement the market has made over the past 5 years.
Average days on market decreased a bit to 75. This is an improvement from a year ago when it was 80. The 5 year average is 78. These trend lines are normal and consistent with trends we see each year.
The average sold to list price for May was 96.3%, which is unchanged from the previous month. The 5 year average is 96.4%, so again we are seeing normal trend lines.
Short Term Trends
The housing market in Phoenix is the strongest its been in a decade. So far there hasn't been any signs of it slowing down, but will see how June/July shake out. Another looming factor that is a wildcard is the Presidential Election is the Fall. Our economy and housing market will surely react to this change, but the questions is will it be good or bad or unchanged? Come experts believe this uncertainty is fueling the current strength... Buyers and Sellers are scrambling to transact before this transition takes place.
The market is definitely favoring Sellers right now, especially in the $200,000 and below market. The $200,000 - $500,000 range is a little more neutral and the $500,000+ market is favoring more Buyers.
Metro Phoenix housing market has best month in a decade
Catherine Reagor, The Republic | azcentral.com May 27, 2016
Foreclosures low, home building high, prices affordable and buyers are moving to the area.
April just might have been the best month for metro Phoenix’s housing market in a decade.
A look at key indicators and some national rankings show why the Valley’s housing market appears to be stronger than it’s been since the boom and crash.
Foreclosures fell to the lowest level since 2006. Homebuilding continued to rebound. Phoenix kept its spot as one of most affordable big metro areas for homebuyers. And a national moving survey shows the Valley is one of the top 10 U.S. areas where people are moving.
Also, many of the buyers needed for the Valley’s housing market to finally fully recover are here.
An April Street Scout survey of Valley homebuyers and sellers found Millennials and boomerang buyers who lost houses to foreclosure during the crash are buying metro Phoenix homes at a pace the market hasn’t seen before.
According to data compiled for this column by Arizona housing expert Mike Orr of The Cromford Report the Valley's housing market is a bit "complicated" now.
Orr's quick take:
- For homes priced below $200,000, there's an extremely low supply available for sale, fast price appreciation and low sales counts.
- For homes priced between $200,000 and $500,000, the supply of homes for sale is slightly low, there's strong growth in demand and moderate price appreciation.
- For homes priced between $500,000 and $1 million, there's a high supply available for sale, good demand and little to no appreciation.
- For homes priced higher than $1 million, there's excessive supply, weakening demand and flat to negative appreciation except for in a few isolated fashionable spots.
Tom Ruff of The Information Market said May’s home sales and prices are likely to be higher than April’s when all are tallied.
Summer’s 100-plus-degree days deter some Valley homebuyers. If home sales and prices continue to climb In June and July, it will be a true testament to the market’s strength.
If not, there’s always the Fall.
